Effects of Colchicine in Non-Diabetic Adults With Metabolic Syndrome
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (243 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-08-15, after 2014-05-31 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-08-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: mgor equalequal todlmetformin
Phrases that lowered it: participantsbodyprescriptionplacebosubjects who -
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 4.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Maximum age: 100 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 100 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 144 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 4.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4576 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 657 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 82.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- colchicine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Colchicine to Suppress Inflammation and Improve Insulin Resistance in Adults and Adolescents With Obesity NCT05017571 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ORMD-0801 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT04754334 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
- Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ORMD-0801 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT04606576 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
- Mifepristone Effects on Glucose Intolerance in Obese/Overweight Adults NCT01419535 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ORMD-0801 (Oral Insulin) in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT03467932 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.