Colchicine to Suppress Inflammation and Improve Insulin Resistance in Adults and Adolescents With Obesity
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 9% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (785 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-09-02, after 2021-11-08 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: randomizationsubjects whoeligiblestudy entrydiagnosis
Phrases that lowered it: participantsprescriptionscreeninggoodhealth -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past trials: 166 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 78.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 12 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 100 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- government (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 166 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 6.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 19227 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2097 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 78.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.9% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- metabolic, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- colchicine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Effects of Colchicine in Non-Diabetic Adults With Metabolic Syndrome NCT02153983 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Anti-Inflammatory Small Drug Adjunctive Therapy for Type 2 Diabetes NCT02597101 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
- A Phase 3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ORMD-0801 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT04754334 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
- Inflammation Inhibition in Prediabetic Humans NCT01977417 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials terminated
- Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ORMD-0801 in Subjects With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT04606576 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.