Anti-Inflammatory Small Drug Adjunctive Therapy for Type 2 Diabetes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (220 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-06-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapytherapiestreatingfailureevidence
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningvisitsubjectsperiodinsulin
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 136684 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 33579 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of MEDI0382 in Combination With Dapagliflozin and Metformin in Overweight/Obese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes NCT03444584 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• Safety, Pharmacokinetics (PK) and Pharmacodynamics (PD) of Multiple Oral Bedtime Doses of ORMD-0801 in Adult Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) NCT01889667 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety and Tolerability of MEDI0382 in Overweight and Obese Participants With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT03745937 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Multiple Ascending Dose Study of MK-5160 in Participants With Type 1 and Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (MK-5160-002) NCT03095651 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of ORMD-0801 (Oral Insulin) in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus NCT03467932 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.