A Single-Arm, Open-Label, Multicenter Clinical Trial With Nivolumab (BMS-936558) for Subjects With Histologically Confirmed Stage III (Unresectable) or Stage IV Melanoma Progressing Post Prior Treatment Containing an Anti-CTLA4 Monoclonal Antibody (CheckMate 172)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-01-18. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 460 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmsto determinedetermine thepurpose ofthe purpose
  Phrases that lowered it: clinical trialopen labelanticooperativenervous
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab Combined With Ipilimumab Followed by Nivolumab Monotherapy as First-Line Treatment for Patients With Advanced Melanoma NCT02599402 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Study of Nivolumab Given Sequentially With Ipilimumab in Subjects With Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma (CheckMate 064) NCT01783938 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) Plus Ipilimumab Compared With Ipilimumab Alone in the Treatment of Previously Untreated, Unresectable, or Metastatic Melanoma NCT01927419 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Study to Compare BMS-936558 to the Physician's Choice of Either Dacarbazine or Carboplatin and Paclitaxel in Advanced Melanoma Patients That Have Progressed Following Anti-CTLA-4 Therapy (CheckMate 037) NCT01721746 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Study of Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab Versus Ipilimumab Alone in Previously Untreated Advanced Melanoma (CheckMate 067) NCT01844505 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.