Nivolumab Combined With Ipilimumab Followed by Nivolumab Monotherapy as First-Line Treatment for Patients With Advanced Melanoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-02-10. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagesubjects withpsoriasismelanomaside effects
  Phrases that lowered it: clinical trialdrugadministrationvisitmonotherapy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 9043 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Nivolumab (BMS-936558) Plus Ipilimumab Compared With Ipilimumab Alone in the Treatment of Previously Untreated, Unresectable, or Metastatic Melanoma NCT01927419 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• A Single-Arm, Open-Label, Multicenter Clinical Trial With Nivolumab (BMS-936558) for Subjects With Histologically Confirmed Stage III (Unresectable) or Stage IV Melanoma Progressing Post Prior Treatment Containing an Anti-CTLA4 Monoclonal Antibody (CheckMate 172) NCT02156804 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Study of Nivolumab Given Sequentially With Ipilimumab in Subjects With Advanced or Metastatic Melanoma (CheckMate 064) NCT01783938 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• PH 1 Biomarker Study of Nivolumab and Ipilimumab and Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab in Advanced Melanoma NCT01621490 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Study of Nivolumab or Nivolumab Plus Ipilimumab Versus Ipilimumab Alone in Previously Untreated Advanced Melanoma (CheckMate 067) NCT01844505 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 26% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.