Treatment Strategies in Colorectal Cancer Patients With Initially Unresectable Liver-only Metastases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: livertumorsmallbevacizumabmetastases
  Phrases that lowered it: accordingblood pressurepatients withdrugsrandomisation
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 33.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 99698 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14260 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• FOLFOXIRI With or Without Bevacizumab as First-line Treatment for Unresectable Liver-only Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients With RAS Mutation-type NCT02350530 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Study Comparing Pathological Responses Observed on Colorectal Cancer Metastases Resected After Preoperative Treatment Combining Cetuximab With FOLFOX or FOLFIRI in RAS and B-RAF WT Tumors NCT01858662 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Chemotherapies Associated With Targeted Therapies on the Resection Rate of Hepatic Metastases NCT01442935 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• FOLFOXIRI With or Without Cetuximab as First-line Treatment of Patients With Non-resectable Liver - Only Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02063529 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant FOLFOX6 + Cetuximab in Patients With Colorectal Cancer and Unresectable Liver Metastasis NCT00743678 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.