A Study Assessing the Safety and Efficacy of Adding Ipatasertib to Paclitaxel Treatment in Participants With Breast Cancer That Has Spread Beyond the Initial Site, and the Cancer Does Not Have Certain Hormonal Receptors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationcancerchemotherapymetastaticplacebo
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantthe efficacydaygroup
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 40 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 188 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Ipatasertib (GDC-0068) in Combination With Paclitaxel as Neoadjuvant Treatment for Participants With Early Stage Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT02301988 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
• Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Alpelisib + Nab-paclitaxel in Subjects With Advanced TNBC Who Carry Either a PIK3CA Mutation or Have PTEN Loss NCT04251533 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Atezolizumab in Combination With Nab-Paclitaxel Compared With Placebo With Nab-Paclitaxel for Participants With Previously Untreated Metastatic Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (IMpassion130) NCT02425891 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Toripalimab in Combination With Nab-Paclitaxel For Patients With Metastatic or Recurrent Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) With or Without Systemic Treatment NCT04085276 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Trilaciclib, a CDK 4/6 Inhibitor, in Patients Receiving Gemcitabine and Carboplatin for Metastatic Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (TNBC) NCT04799249 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.