A Study of Ipatasertib (GDC-0068) in Combination With Paclitaxel as Neoadjuvant Treatment for Participants With Early Stage Triple Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-08-02. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerstagemetastaticchemotherapytumor
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantthe efficacyexaminationwomen
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 37 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 203 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 17877 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Assessing the Safety and Efficacy of Adding Ipatasertib to Paclitaxel Treatment in Participants With Breast Cancer That Has Spread Beyond the Initial Site, and the Cancer Does Not Have Certain Hormonal Receptors NCT02162719 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Alpelisib + Nab-paclitaxel in Subjects With Advanced TNBC Who Carry Either a PIK3CA Mutation or Have PTEN Loss NCT04251533 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
• Two Regimens of SAR240550/Weekly Paclitaxel and Paclitaxel Alone as Neoadjuvant Therapy in Triple Negative Breast Cancer Patients NCT01204125 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• A Phase 2 Study of Standard Chemotherapy Plus BSI-201 (a PARP Inhibitor) in the Neoadjuvant Treatment of Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT00813956 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Study of SAR240550 (BSI-201) in Combination With Gemcitabine/Carboplatin, in Patients With Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer NCT01045304 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.