An Open-label, Randomised Multicenter Phase 3b Study to Determine the Confirmed Rate of Molecular Response ≥ 4 Log (MR4) at Two Years

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 16% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (607 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-10-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: celltransplantulnheartleft
  Phrases that lowered it: open labeldailydiseasesor presencean open
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 3005 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized Phase Lll Study of Imatinib Dose Optimization vs Nilotinib in CML Patients With Suboptimal Response to Imatinib NCT00802841 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Nilotinib Plus Pegylated Interferon-α2b in CML NCT01866553 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• Trial to Evaluate the Improvement of Chronic Low-grade AEs in Patients With Ph+ CML With Optimal Response to Imatinib When Switched to Nilotinib NCT02115386 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• Asciminib Used in Consolidation With Imatinib vs. Imatinib to Achieve TFR in CP-CML NCT05413915 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• ENDURE - Efficacy and Safety of AOP2014 With CML Patients in Remission NCT03117816 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.