Nilotinib Plus Pegylated Interferon-α2b in CML

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 17% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-05-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: longstableqtcoronaryheart
  Phrases that lowered it: stemtrialtransplantationdrugalcohol
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 17 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 4006 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Randomized Phase Lll Study of Imatinib Dose Optimization vs Nilotinib in CML Patients With Suboptimal Response to Imatinib NCT00802841 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Trial to Evaluate the Improvement of Chronic Low-grade AEs in Patients With Ph+ CML With Optimal Response to Imatinib When Switched to Nilotinib NCT02115386 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials terminated
• An Open-label, Randomised Multicenter Phase 3b Study to Determine the Confirmed Rate of Molecular Response ≥ 4 Log (MR4) at Two Years NCT02174445 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• TKI and Interferon Alpha Evaluation Initiated by the German Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Study Group - the TIGER Study NCT01657604 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• A Study of Full Treatment-free Remission in Patients With Chronic Myeloid Leukemia NCT03874858 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.