A Study of Full Treatment-free Remission in Patients With Chronic Myeloid Leukemia
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2025-10-15, after 2019-03-22 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: stagecancerleukemiasubjectprior
Phrases that lowered it: maleclinically significantimpairmentabsorptionefficacy -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 99 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 162 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor's past trials: 1207 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 14 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 99 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1207 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.1% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 162 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 17641 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2525 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 72.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 18.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- asciminib, nilotinib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nilotinib Treatment-free Remission Study in CML (Chronic Myeloid Leukemia) Patients NCT01784068 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
- Treatment-free Remission After Achieving Sustained MR4.5 on Nilotinib (ENESTop) NCT01698905 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- TKI and Interferon Alpha Evaluation Initiated by the German Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Study Group - the TIGER Study NCT01657604 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
- Nilotinib Plus Pegylated Interferon-α2b in CML NCT01866553 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
- An Open-Label, Phase I/II Study of Nilotinib (Tasigna) and MEK-162 (ARRY-162) Used in Combination for Patients With Refractory or Advanced Chronic Myeloid Leukemia and Philadelphia Positive Acute Leukemia (Protocol CAMN107AUS41T) NCT02225574 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.