Phase II Trial of Natalizumab + Prednisone for Initial Therapy of Acute GI GVHD

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (111 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-02-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: eligiblepatients musttreatingbreastcells
  Phrases that lowered it: participantstractclinicalthe effecthepatic
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 36.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 57 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 205 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17609 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 148296 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Multicenter Study Of Natalizumab Plus Standard Steroid Treatment For High Risk Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease NCT02133924 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Tocilizumab for Patients With Glucocorticoid-refractory Acute GVHD After Allogeneic Hematopoetic Stem Cell Transplant (HSCT) NCT01757197 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 2A Study of ALXN1007 in Participants With Newly Diagnosed Acute Lower Gastrointestinal Graft-Versus-Host Disease NCT02245412 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Compare T-Guard vs Ruxolitinib for Treatment of Steroid-Refractory Acute Graft-vs-Host Disease (BMT CTN 2002) NCT04934670 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials terminated
• Study of IL-22 IgG2-Fc (F-652) for Subjects With Grade II-IV Lower GI aGVHD NCT02406651 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.