Multicenter Study Of Natalizumab Plus Standard Steroid Treatment For High Risk Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (111 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: transplantdonorgvhdacuteenrollment
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomamultipletopicalrangethe upper
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 53.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 304141 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 43005 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Trial of Natalizumab + Prednisone for Initial Therapy of Acute GI GVHD NCT02176031 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Acute Graft-versus-Host Disease Treatment (BMT CTN 0802) NCT01002742 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Tocilizumab for Patients With Glucocorticoid-refractory Acute GVHD After Allogeneic Hematopoetic Stem Cell Transplant (HSCT) NCT01757197 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• To Compare the Efficacy of the Addition of Methotrexate (MTX) to Current Standard Acute Graft-versus-host Disease (GVHD) First-line Treatment With Corticosteroids NCT03371667 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Pilot Study of Alpha-1-Antitrypsin (AAT) in Steroid Refractory Acute Graft vs Host Disease NCT01700036 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.