Study of Afuresertib Monotherapy in Japanese Relapsed Multiple Myeloma Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 11% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-08-14, after 2014-08-13 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “business”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: coronarycellheartcarcinomasubject
Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsjapanesefemalemultiplecontraceptive -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 20 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 678 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 12.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 284 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 0 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- No (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 0 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 0 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- no FAERS history (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- no FAERS history (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, cardiovascular, immunology, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- afuresertib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study Conducted in Subjects With Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma (MM); to Determine Dose of Afuresertib in Combination With Carfilzomib (Part 1) and to Investigate the Safety, Pharmacokinetic and Clinical Activity of the Combination Compared With Carfilzomib Alone (Part 2) NCT02235740 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated
- Ph 1b Study to Evaluate GSK2110183 in Combination With Bortezomib and Dexamethasone in Subjects With Multiple Myeloma NCT01428492 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials completed
- ON 123300 (Narazaciclib) and Dexamethasone in Patients With Relapsed and/or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT06351644 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials terminated
- Study of Oral Ixazomib Maintenance Therapy After Initial Therapy in Participants With Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma Not Treated With Stem Cell Transplantation (SCT) NCT03748953 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- Study of Carfilzomib in Combination w/Dexamethasone in Patients w/Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma NCT01969565 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.