The Vitamin D in Pediatric Crohn's Disease
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 19% of the time (90 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-12-20, after 2016-02-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-12-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: diseaserandomizationbonecrohndefined
Phrases that lowered it: indexcriteriachildrenphysicaloral -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 63.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports before start: 118640 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 9 (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- triple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 9 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 18 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 28 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 13 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 118640 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 25602 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 63.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- cholecalciferol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Bioavailability of Vitamin D in Children and Adolescents With Crohn's Disease NCT01692808 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- Vitamin D Supplementation as Non-toxic Immunomodulation in Children With Crohn's Disease NCT01046773 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
- Cholecalciferol Comedication in IBD - the 5C-study NCT04991324 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
- Low Dose Oral Methotrexate in Pediatric Crohn's Disease Patients Initiating Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor (Anti-TNF) Therapy NCT02772965 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of CROWN in Repair and Maintenance of the Intestinal Mucosa in Patients With CD Receiving Anti-TNF Therapy NCT02793778 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.