Efficacy of CROWN in Repair and Maintenance of the Intestinal Mucosa in Patients With CD Receiving Anti-TNF Therapy

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjecttherapyrandomizationpriorpurpose
  Phrases that lowered it: evaluatefooddiseasesgastrointestinalhealing
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Evaluating Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Crohn's Disease NCT04102111 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Anti-MAP Therapy in Adult Crohn's Disease NCT01951326 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Assessment of Mucosal Activity to Improve the Prognosis of Patients With Crohn's Disease Treated With Immunosuppressants NCT01562951 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Fundamental Modification of the Gut Microbiota in the Treatment of Refractory Crohn's Disease NCT02765256 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Pilot and Feasibility Study of 2'-FL as a Dietary Supplement in IBD Patients Receiving Stable Maintenance Anti-TNF Therapy NCT03847467 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.