Oral Iron Repletion Effects On Oxygen Uptake in Heart Failure

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 38% for any early termination, 19% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (741 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-04-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailuretherapyivcardiac
  Phrases that lowered it: oralgastrointestinaldosingplacebopopulation
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 8.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 64.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ferric Carboxymaltose to Improve Skeletal Muscle Metabolism in Heart Failure Patients With Functional Iron Deficiency NCT03218384 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Impact of Intravenous Iron Repletion On Mechanisms of Exercise InTolerance in HFpEF (IRONMET-HFpEF) NCT04945707 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Effects of Iron Therapy in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction and Iron Deficiency (PREFER-HF) NCT03833336 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Short Term Oral Iron Supplementation in Systolic Heart Failure Patients Suffering From Iron Deficiency Anemia NCT02998697 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Effect of Ferric Carboxymaltose on Exercise Capacity in Patients With Iron Deficiency and Chronic Heart Failure NCT01394562 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.