Short Term Oral Iron Supplementation in Systolic Heart Failure Patients Suffering From Iron Deficiency Anemia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartfailurepatientsdltherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: effect ofthe effectallergicmalethe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 60.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ferric Carboxymaltose to Improve Skeletal Muscle Metabolism in Heart Failure Patients With Functional Iron Deficiency NCT03218384 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• Oral Iron Repletion Effects On Oxygen Uptake in Heart Failure NCT02188784 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Effect of Ferric Carboxymaltose on Exercise Capacity in Patients With Iron Deficiency and Chronic Heart Failure NCT01394562 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials completed
• Iron in Patients With Cardiovascular Disease NCT03991000 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• EFfect of Ferric Carboxymaltose on exercIse CApacity and Cardiac Function in Patients With Iron deficiencY and Chronic Heart Failure NCT00821717 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.