N-MOmentum: A Clinical Research Study of Inebilizumab in Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorders

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 21% of the time (63 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-11-06. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: screeningplacebomonths priorprior tosubjects
  Phrases that lowered it: participantstherapyinfectioncellattack
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 33 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 136 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Ublituximab for Acute Neuromyelitis Optica (NMO) Relapses NCT02276963 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Phase I Clinical Trial of BAT4406F Injection in Patients With Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorders NCT04146285 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Tocilizumab vs Azathioprine in Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorders NCT03350633 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Satralizumab (SA237) as Add-on Therapy to Treat Participants With Neuromyelitis Optica (NMO) and NMO Spectrum Disorder (NMOSD) NCT02028884 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Satralizumab (SA237) as Monotherapy to Treat Participants With Neuromyelitis Optica (NMO) and Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder (NMOSD) NCT02073279 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.