Tocilizumab vs Azathioprine in Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorders
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (112 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-09-01, after 2017-11-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-09-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: evidencecellswithin 3030 daysinfection
Phrases that lowered it: trialefficacy andand safetytocilizumabrelevant -
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 80.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 8 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 56424 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 12395 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 80.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 9.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- neurology, immunology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- azathioprine, tocilizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Longitudinal Study of ACTEMRA® (Tocilizumab) as Monotherapy in Highly Active NMOSD NCT03062579 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 52% of active trials completed
- A Study of the Safety and Activity of Eculizumab in Pediatric Participants With Relapsing Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorder NCT04155424 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
- Ublituximab for Acute Neuromyelitis Optica (NMO) Relapses NCT02276963 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- N-MOmentum: A Clinical Research Study of Inebilizumab in Neuromyelitis Optica Spectrum Disorders NCT02200770 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
- A Randomized Controlled Trial of Eculizumab in AQP4 Antibody-positive Participants With NMO (PREVENT Study) NCT01892345 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.