Erlotinib and Momelotinib for the Treatment of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutated EGFR Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) Naive Metastatic Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-02-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cellulnegfrcellsnsclc
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andparticipantsevaluatepharmacokineticslung
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 59.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 99.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of Momelotinib Combined With Trametinib in Adults With Metastatic KRAS-mutated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Failed Platinum-Based Chemotherapy Preceded by a Dose-finding Lead-in Phase NCT02258607 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated
• A Study of MetMAb Administered to Patients With Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer, in Combination With Tarceva (Erlotinib) NCT00854308 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Erlotinib Versus Pemetrexed as Second-Line Therapy in Treating Patients With Advanced Lung Adenocarcinoma NCT01565538 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Study of Tepotinib Plus Osimertinib in Osimertinib Relapsed MET Amplified NSCLC (INSIGHT 2) NCT03940703 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Olmutinib 600 mg QD in Patients With T790M-positive NSCLC After Treatment With an EGFR-TKI NCT04510415 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.