A Study Evaluating the Effect of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Renal Cell Cancer (MK-3475-031)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2019-07-05, after 2014-12-03 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcancerdiseasetherapyactive
Phrases that lowered it: participantseffect ofthe effecttrialasthma -
Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 1054 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 128 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, urogenital: Yes (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1054 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 17.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 128 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 485 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 484 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 72.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- pembrolizumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Safety and Efficacy Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) as Monotherapy in the Adjuvant Treatment of Renal Cell Carcinoma Post Nephrectomy (MK-3475-564/KEYNOTE-564) NCT03142334 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) Monotherapy in Locally Advanced/Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma (MK-3475-427/KEYNOTE-427) NCT02853344 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab Combined With Ipilimumab Versus Sunitinib in Previously Untreated Advanced or Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma (CheckMate 214) NCT02231749 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- Study of Pembrolizumab (MK-3475) in Participants With Advanced Urothelial Cancer (MK-3475-052/KEYNOTE-052) NCT02335424 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- A Study of Anti-PD1 (Nivolumab) Therapy as Pre- and Post-operative Therapy in Metastatic Renal Cell Cancer (ADAPTeR) NCT02446860 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.