Evaluation of Biomarkers Associated With Response to Subsequent Therapies in Subjects With HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Terminated on 2020-06-04, after 2014-10-24 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-06-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: breast cancerstableqtcqtheart
Phrases that lowered it: copiescombinationopen labeldrugssingle -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 10 (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 22846 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 281 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 10 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 703 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 13.5% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 281 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 22846 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 3717 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 83.9% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 17.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- lapatinib, trastuzumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Evaluate BL-M17D1 in Patients w/HER2-Expressing/Mutant Advanced or Metastatic Solid Tumors NCT06714617 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
- Compare Efficacy, Safety and Immunogenicity of HLX02 and Herceptin in Previously Untreated HER2 +Overexpressing Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03084237 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
- A Dose-Escalation Study Evaluating the Combination of Trastuzumab Emtansine (T-DM1) With Neratinib in Women With Metastatic HER2-Positive Breast Cancer NCT02236000 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Ipatasertib + Pertuzumab +Trastuzumab in Advanced HER2+ PI3KCA-mutant Breast Cancer Patients NCT04253561 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
- Phase 1, Multiple Ascending Dose Study of Anti-HER2 FCAB FS102 in HER2 Positive Solid Tumors (Anti HER2 Fcab) NCT02286219 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 41% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.