A Dose-Escalation Study Evaluating the Combination of Trastuzumab Emtansine (T-DM1) With Neratinib in Women With Metastatic HER2-Positive Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 25% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-08-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreaterpatients mustmetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: breast cancerinvestigatoraminotransferaseher2days
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 10.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Combination of Weekly Paclitaxel With Neratinib and Trastuzumab in Women With Metastatic HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT01423123 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Evaluation of Biomarkers Associated With Response to Subsequent Therapies in Subjects With HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02213042 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• BYL719 + T-DM1 in HER2(+) Metastatic Breast Cancer Pts Who Progress on Prior Trastuzumab & Taxane Tx NCT02038010 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• Incidence and Severity of Diarrhea in Patients With HER2 Positive Breast Cancer Treated With Trastuzumab and Neratinib NCT03094052 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Vinorelbine With Trastuzumab Emtansine in Pre-Treated HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02658084 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.