Eribulin Versus Vinorelbine in Subjects With Locally Recurrent or Metastatic Breast Cancer Previously Treated With Anthracyclines and Taxanes

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-06-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: or equalequal togreater thanbreast cancersubject
  Phrases that lowered it: subjectsand safetypharmacokineticsfemalechild
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 45 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Confirmation Study of Eribulin in Combination With Capecitabine NCT01323530 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib in Combination With Tamoxifen as First Line Therapy for Metastatic Hormone Receptor Positive Breast Cancer NCT02668666 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• Lapatinib + Vinorelbine in ErbB2 Overexpressing, First or Second Line Metastatic Breast Cancer Subjects NCT00709618 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Evaluate Risk/Benefit of Nab Paclitaxel in Combination With Gemcitabine and Carboplatin Compared to Gemcitabine and Carboplatin in Triple Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer (or Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer) NCT01881230 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Eribulin Mesylate in Combination With Pembrolizumab in Participants With Metastatic Triple-Negative Breast Cancer (mTNBC) NCT02513472 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.