A Study of IDN-6556 in Cirrhotic Subjects With Portal Hypertension

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 25% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-06-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjectsafety tolerabilitytolerability andscreeningor presence
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelcelltherapymgdl
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 12.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 8 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of IDN-6556 in Subjects With Liver Cirrhosis NCT02230670 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• A Study to Test Whether Avenciguat Helps People With Liver Cirrhosis and High Blood Pressure in the Portal Vein (Main Vessel Going to the Liver) Who Had Bleeding in the Esophagus or Fluid Accumulation in the Belly NCT06082843 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Test Whether Two Different Doses of Avenciguat Help People With Liver Cirrhosis and High Blood Pressure in the Portal Vein (Main Vessel Going to the Liver) NCT05161481 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
• Clinical Trial to Evaluation the Safety and Efficacy of GR-MD-02 for the Treatment of Liver Fibrosis and Resultant Portal Hypertension in Patients With Nash Cirrhosis NCT02462967 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Zibotentan and Dapagliflozin Combination, EvAluated in Liver Cirrhosis (ZEAL Study) NCT05516498 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.