A Study to Test Whether Avenciguat Helps People With Liver Cirrhosis and High Blood Pressure in the Portal Vein (Main Vessel Going to the Liver) Who Had Bleeding in the Esophagus or Fluid Accumulation in the Belly

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 18% of the time (280 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: hepatitischronichcvcirrhosisliver disease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe trialgoodbivisit
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 778 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 101 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test Whether Two Different Doses of Avenciguat Help People With Liver Cirrhosis and High Blood Pressure in the Portal Vein (Main Vessel Going to the Liver) NCT05161481 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 53% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Test Whether BI 685509 Alone or in Combination With Empagliflozin Helps People With Liver Cirrhosis Caused by Viral Hepatitis or Non-alcoholic Steatohepatitis (NASH) Who Have High Blood Pressure in the Portal Vein (Main Vessel Going to the Liver) NCT05282121 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials terminated
• Zibotentan and Dapagliflozin Combination, EvAluated in Liver Cirrhosis (ZEAL Study) NCT05516498 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
• A Study of IDN-6556 in Cirrhotic Subjects With Portal Hypertension NCT02230683 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial to Evaluation the Safety and Efficacy of GR-MD-02 for the Treatment of Liver Fibrosis and Resultant Portal Hypertension in Patients With Nash Cirrhosis NCT02462967 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.