A Multicenter Open Label Phase II Study of Pomalidomide and Cyclophosphamide and Dexamethasone in Relapse/Refractory Multiple Myeloma Patients Who Were First Treated Within the IFM/DFCI 2009 Trial (PCD)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-05-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapydltransplantationrelapserisk
  Phrases that lowered it: myelomatriallenalidomidedexamethasone28
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 72392 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Treatment Optimization in Patients With Untreated Multiple Myeloma NCT02145598 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• Pom-dex Versus Pom-Cyclo-dex in MM Patients With Biochemical or Clinical Relapse, During Lena Maintenance Treatment NCT03440411 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials terminated
• Combination Study of Pomalidomide, Marizomib, and Low-Dose Dexamethasone in Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02103335 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Pomalidomide, Bortezomib, and Dexamethasone in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01212952 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab Role in the Treatment of Patients With Refractory or Relapse Multiple Myeloma NCT03023527 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.