Nivolumab Role in the Treatment of Patients With Refractory or Relapse Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasmultiplethe subjectleukemiasubjects
  Phrases that lowered it: opendaypatientsmgsubject who
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 114369 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 6 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 33861 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Combination Study of Pomalidomide, Marizomib, and Low-Dose Dexamethasone in Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02103335 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Phase II Multicenter, Open-label, Single Arm Clinical Study of Pomalidomide and dexamethasonE and Cyclophosphamide NCT02046915 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Pomalidomide Monotherapy in Subjects With Refractory or Relapsed Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT01324947 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Study of Pomalidomide, Oral Dexamethasone and Very Low-dose Cyclophosphamide in Patients With Refractory Multiple Myeloma Who Have Received Lenalidomide and Bortezomib NCT04243109 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 51% of active trials terminated
• Dexamethasone, Elotuzumab, and Pomalidomide in Treating Patients With Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT03713294 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.