Dexamethasone, Elotuzumab, and Pomalidomide in Treating Patients With Refractory Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-11-14. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: heartmyelomacancercardiacfailure
  Phrases that lowered it: daysclinicaltrialrefractoryline
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 171405 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 84.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 254 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Lenalidomide/Bortezomib/Dexamethasone & CNTO 328 in Transplant Eligible Newly Diagnosed Multiple Myeloma (MM) NCT01531998 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide and Pidilizumab in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02077959 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• Combination Study of Pomalidomide, Marizomib, and Low-Dose Dexamethasone in Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02103335 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Lenalidomide and Nivolumab in Treating Patients With Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT03333746 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials terminated
• Immunomodulatory Drugs (Lenalidomide With or Without Pomalidomide) in Combination With a Corticosteroid Drug (Dexamethasone) for the Treatment of Multiple Myeloma NCT05288062 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.