Immunomodulatory Drugs (Lenalidomide With or Without Pomalidomide) in Combination With a Corticosteroid Drug (Dexamethasone) for the Treatment of Multiple Myeloma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: myelomapatientdeterminemultiplereceiving
  Phrases that lowered it: the effecteffect ofbonethe investigatorliver
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 14.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1276 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 73.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 615699 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, dermatology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 97645 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 266 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Dexamethasone, Elotuzumab, and Pomalidomide in Treating Patients With Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT03713294 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Combination Study of Pomalidomide, Marizomib, and Low-Dose Dexamethasone in Relapsed and Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02103335 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Immuno-Oncology Drugs Elotuzumab, Anti-LAG-3 and Anti-TIGIT NCT04150965 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
• Ixazomib Citrate, Pomalidomide, Dexamethasone, Stem Cell Transplant in Treating Relapsed or Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT03202628 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Study of Pomalidomide, Cyclophosphamide, Dexamethasone in Relapsed/Refractory Multiple Myeloma NCT02176213 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.