Study Evaluating the Efficacy of Aflibercept for the Treatment of NVCI in Young Patients
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-07-11, after 2015-07-06 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-07-11. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patienttherapyocularpatientsphase ii
Phrases that lowered it: medical historyhealthmacularinjectionhistory of -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 29.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 108 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 119 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 119 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 7.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 108 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 2660 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1286 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.8% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 29.3% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- aflibercept
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Study Evaluating the Efficacy of Aflibercept for the Treatment of Inflammatory CNV in Young Patients (ALINEA). NCT02556229 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Aflibercept After Ranibizumab in Exudative Age-related Macular Degeneration NCT02157077 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Aflibercept in Patients With Neovascular Age-related Macular Degeneration NCT05587062 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Ranibizumab for Treating Submacular Vascularized Pigment Epithelial Detachments NCT00749021 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
- IAI Versus Sham as Prophylaxis Against Conversion to Neovascular AMD NCT02462889 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.