Study of Radium-223 Dichloride in Combination With Exemestane and Everolimus Versus Placebo in Combination With Exemestane and Everolimus in Subjects With Bone Predominant HER2 Negative Hormone Receptor Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerplacebopriorchemotherapybrain
  Phrases that lowered it: combinationand safetyefficacy andaccordingline
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 123 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 562 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 87.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study of Radium-223 Dichloride Versus Placebo and Hormonal Treatment as Background Therapy in Subjects With Bone Predominant HER2 (Human Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor 2) Negative Hormone Receptor Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02258464 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials terminated
• Trial of Ra-223 Dichloride in Combination With Hormonal Therapy and Denosumab in the Treatment of Patients With Hormone-Positive Bone-Dominant Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02366130 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• A Randomized Phase IIa Efficacy and Safety Study of Radium-223 Dichloride With Abiraterone Acetate or Enzalutamide in Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC) NCT02034552 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Radium-223 Dichloride and Abiraterone Acetate Compared to Placebo and Abiraterone Acetate for Men With Cancer of the Prostate When Medical or Surgical Castration Does Not Work and When the Cancer Has Spread to the Bone, Has Not Been Treated With Chemotherapy and is Causing no or Only Mild Symptoms NCT02043678 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• Open Label Phase Two Trial of Radium Ra 223 Dichloride With Concurrent Administration of Abiraterone Acetate Plus Prednisone in Symptomatic Castration-Resistant (Hormone-Refractory) Prostate Cancer Subjects With Bone Metastasis NCT02097303 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.