Open Label Phase Two Trial of Radium Ra 223 Dichloride With Concurrent Administration of Abiraterone Acetate Plus Prednisone in Symptomatic Castration-Resistant (Hormone-Refractory) Prostate Cancer Subjects With Bone Metastasis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 32% for any early termination, 21% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subject hasprostatehas historycancerscan
  Phrases that lowered it: open labelscreeningthe previous12receive
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 76.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 13.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 15528 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Keywords listed: 9 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Open Label Phase Two Study of Enzalutamide With Concurrent Administration of Radium Ra 223 Dichloride in Castration-Resistant (Hormone-Refractory) Prostate Cancer Subjects With Symptomatic Bone Metastasis NCT02507570 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Androgen Deprivation Therapy +/- Radium-223 Dichloride in Metastatic Prostate Cancer With Bone Metastases NCT02582749 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• A Biomarker Study of Standard-of-care Radium-223 Chloride for Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer NCT02346526 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Trial of Rad-223 Activity in Asymptomatic Patients With mCRPC While on Abiraterone or Enzalutamide Besides AR-V7 Status NCT03002220 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Phase IB Trial of Radium-223 and Niraparib in Patients With Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer (NiraRad) NCT03076203 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.