A Biomarker Study of Standard-of-care Radium-223 Chloride for Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 31% for any early termination, 18% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-12-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerstandardmm3completedbone
  Phrases that lowered it: ramalethe treatmentdrugconsent form
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 17.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 46.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 184 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 505 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 591 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 223 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Non-Randomized Trial Assessing Pain Efficacy With Radium-223 in Symptomatic Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer NCT02278055 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed
• Radium Ra 223 With Enzalutamide Compared to Enzalutamide Alone in Men With Metastatic Castration Refractory Prostate Cancer NCT02199197 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
• Study of Sipuleucel-T W/ or W/O Radium-223 in Men With Asymptomatic or Minimally Symptomatic Bone-MCRPC NCT02463799 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Radium-223 in Combination With Enzalutamide NCT02225704 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Open Label Phase Two Trial of Radium Ra 223 Dichloride With Concurrent Administration of Abiraterone Acetate Plus Prednisone in Symptomatic Castration-Resistant (Hormone-Refractory) Prostate Cancer Subjects With Bone Metastasis NCT02097303 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.