Phase IB Trial of Radium-223 and Niraparib in Patients With Castrate Resistant Prostate Cancer (NiraRad)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 17% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 11% of the time (918 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-11-07, after 2017-09-22 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-11-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartradiationfailureqtcardiac
Phrases that lowered it: periodaminotransferaseprostateandrogenresistant -
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 57.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 3 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- male (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 62 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 27.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 29 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1572 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 564 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 57.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- niraparib, radium
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Radium Ra 223 With Enzalutamide Compared to Enzalutamide Alone in Men With Metastatic Castration Refractory Prostate Cancer NCT02199197 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- Open Label Phase Two Study of Enzalutamide With Concurrent Administration of Radium Ra 223 Dichloride in Castration-Resistant (Hormone-Refractory) Prostate Cancer Subjects With Symptomatic Bone Metastasis NCT02507570 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
- Study Evaluating the Addition of Pembrolizumab to Radium-223 in mCRPC NCT03093428 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
- Open Label Phase Two Trial of Radium Ra 223 Dichloride With Concurrent Administration of Abiraterone Acetate Plus Prednisone in Symptomatic Castration-Resistant (Hormone-Refractory) Prostate Cancer Subjects With Bone Metastasis NCT02097303 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Androgen Deprivation Therapy +/- Radium-223 Dichloride in Metastatic Prostate Cancer With Bone Metastases NCT02582749 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.