Safety and Efficacy Study of a Biologic to Treat Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 13% of the time (1,304 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebobmsdouble blindrandomizedcontrolled
  Phrases that lowered it: patients wholong termextensionclinical trialand safety
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 462 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 70 (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Investigational Study to Evaluate BMS-986165 in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT03252587 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Long-Term Safety and Efficacy Study of Deucravacitinib in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT03920267 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A IMMA Master Protocol: A Study of LY3361237 in Participants With at Least Moderately Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT05123586 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials terminated
• A Study of the Safety of Oral Elsubrutinib Capsules and Oral Upadacitinib Tablets Given Alone or in Combination (ABBV-599) for Adult Participants With Moderately to Severely Active Systemic Lupus Erythematosus to Assess Change in Disease State NCT04451772 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Drug Levels and Drug Effects of BMS-986326 in Adult Participants With Different Forms of Lupus NCT06013995 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.