Long-Term Safety and Efficacy Study of Deucravacitinib in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 41% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: bmslong termterm safetythe longsubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: drugthe trialinvestigatorinterfere withresults
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 645 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 108 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 0 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• An Investigational Study to Evaluate BMS-986165 in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT03252587 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy Study of a Biologic to Treat Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT02265744 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• A Study to Investigate the Safety, Tolerability, Drug Levels and Drug Effects of BMS-986326 in Adult Participants With Different Forms of Lupus NCT06013995 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• A Trial for Subjects With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Who Have Completed Protocol AN-SLE3321 NCT01305746 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• On Open-Label Study in Participants With Systemic Lupus Erythematosus NCT01488708 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.