Phase II Decitabine (DAC) Versus Azacitidine (AZA) in Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-07-25, after 2014-10-13 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 28.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: standardpatients withapprovedivresearch study
Phrases that lowered it: safety ofmgdrugscomparedaily -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 153 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 47.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 98.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past trials: 495 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Keywords listed: 19 (raises risk) · Design
-
Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 19 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 495 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 28.9% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 153 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5384 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1096 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 98.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 47.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, hematology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- azacitidine, decitabine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Decitabine Versus Azacitidine in Myelodysplastic Syndrome Patients With Low and Intermediate-1 Risk NCT01720225 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- Intensified Azacitidine in High Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT01305460 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Study of ASTX727 vs IV Decitabine in Participants With MDS, CMML, and AML NCT03306264 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
- Phase II Study to Evaluate Overall Response in Patients With Higher Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) Treated With Azacitidine With or Without Deferasirox. NCT02159040 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- Study of Azacytidine Followed by GM-CSF in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT01542684 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.