A Phase3 Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of MEDI3250 in Healthy Japanese Children Age 7 Years Through 18 Years

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 6% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationtolerabilitysubjectprior30 days
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinevaccinationinfluenzareceipthealthy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.2% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 1272 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 156 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase 3 Open-label Study to Evaluate the Safety of MEDI3250 in Healthy Japanese Children Age 2 Years Through 6 Years NCT02269488 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity of Quadrivalent LAIV in Adults 18 to 49 Years of Age NCT00860067 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity of Quadrivalent Live Attenuated Influenza Vaccine (LAIV) in Children NCT01091246 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Immunogenicity and Vaccine-like Viral Shedding of MEDI-534, Against Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) and Parainfluenza Virus Type 3 (PIV3), in Healthy 6 to <24 Month-old Children and in 2 Month-old Infants NCT00686075 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Immunogenicity of Quadrivalent LAIV (MEDI8662) in Adults 18 to 49 Years of Age NCT00952705 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 0% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.