Phase 2 Trial of Regorafenib in Patients With Recurrent Ovarian, Primary Peritoneal and Fallopian Tube Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 22% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2017-01-31, after 2015-03-31 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: equal tostudy drugcanceror equaltumor
Phrases that lowered it: receivedregimenpatients whothe efficacybased -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 47 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 146 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 816 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 146 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 16.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 47 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1974 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 816 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 87.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, urogenital, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- regorafenib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Use of Regorafenib in Recurrent Epithelial Ovarian Cancer NCT02736305 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Regorafenib in Bevacizumab Refractory Recurrent Glioblastoma NCT04051606 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Study of Regorafenib for Urothelial Cancer Following Chemotherapy (UAB 1477) NCT02459119 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Lower or Standard Dose Regorafenib in Treating Patients With Refractory Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT02368886 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
- A Study Using Regorafenib as Second or Third Line Therapy in Metastatic Medullary Thyroid Cancer NCT02657551 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.