A Study to Evaluate the Botulinum Toxin Type A for Injection(HengLi®) in Subjects With Post-stroke Upper Limb Spasticity

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (493 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stablefunctionor plannedpatientsunstable
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofclinicalthe efficacy
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 19.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, musculoskeletal: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 17552 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Multicenter, Double-Blind, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK1358820 (Botulinum Toxin Type A) in Chinese Subjects With Post-stroke Upper Limb Spasticity NCT01153815 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Open-label, Single Dose Study of the Safety and Efficacy of GSK1358820 (Botulinum Toxin Type A) in Chinese Subjects With Post-stroke Focal Upper Limb Spasticity NCT01205451 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Phase III Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK1358820 in Subjects With Post-stroke Upper Limb Spasticity NCT03261167 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of MYOBLOC® in the Treatment of Adult Upper Limb Spasticity NCT04815967 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety Study of MYOBLOC® in the Treatment of Adult Lower Limb Spasticity NCT04099667 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.