Efficacy and Safety Study of MYOBLOC® in the Treatment of Adult Lower Limb Spasticity

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase and sponsor type, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (370 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: randomizationsclerosisinjurymsbrain
  Phrases that lowered it: days beforeand safetyefficacy andlong termsingle
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 53.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 73 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of MYOBLOC® in the Treatment of Adult Upper Limb Spasticity NCT04815967 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials terminated
• A Phase III Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK1358820 in Subjects With Post-stroke Upper Limb Spasticity NCT03261167 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Double-Blind, Randomized, Placebo-Controlled Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of GSK1358820 (Botulinum Toxin Type A) in Chinese Subjects With Post-stroke Upper Limb Spasticity NCT01153815 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate the Botulinum Toxin Type A for Injection(HengLi®) in Subjects With Post-stroke Upper Limb Spasticity NCT02280083 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Open-label, Single Dose Study of the Safety and Efficacy of GSK1358820 (Botulinum Toxin Type A) in Chinese Subjects With Post-stroke Focal Upper Limb Spasticity NCT01205451 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.