A Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Four Different Doses of BI 409306 Compared to Placebo Given for 12 Weeks in Patients With Schizophrenia on Stable Antipsychotic Treatment.

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2016-06-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: schizophreniasyndromestablepatients mustdsm
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsvisitrandomisationbimale
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 132 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 297 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• This Study Tests Whether BI 409306 Prevents Patients With Schizophrenia From Becoming Worse. This Study Looks at How Well Patients Tolerate BI 409306 and How Effective it is Over 6 Months NCT03351244 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• This Study Tests Whether BI 409306 Prevents Patients With a Specific Type of Mental Illness (Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome) From Becoming Worse. This Study Looks at How Well Patients Tolerate the Medicine and How Effective it is Over 1 Year NCT03230097 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated
• Safety and Tolerability of BI 409306 in Patients With Schizophrenia NCT01892384 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of BI 425809 Effect on Cognition and Functional Capacity in Schizophrenia NCT02832037 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Clinical Trial of Iclepertin Effect on Cognition and Functional Capacity in Schizophrenia (CONNEX-2) NCT04846881 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.