This Study Tests Whether BI 409306 Prevents Patients With a Specific Type of Mental Illness (Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome) From Becoming Worse. This Study Looks at How Well Patients Tolerate the Medicine and How Effective it is Over 1 Year

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (269 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-07. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 6.5% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 111 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientrandomizationdisorderdiagnosisinjury
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsthe trialbithe investigatorevaluate the
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• This Study Tests Whether BI 409306 Prevents Patients With Schizophrenia From Becoming Worse. This Study Looks at How Well Patients Tolerate BI 409306 and How Effective it is Over 6 Months NCT03351244 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Investigate the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Four Different Doses of BI 409306 Compared to Placebo Given for 12 Weeks in Patients With Schizophrenia on Stable Antipsychotic Treatment. NCT02281773 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of BI 409306 in Patients With Schizophrenia NCT01892384 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate Efficacy and Safety of Roluperidone (MIN-101) in Adult Patients With Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia NCT03397134 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
• Dexmedetomidine in the Treatment of Agitation Associated With Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder (SERENITY III) NCT05658510 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.