Dexmedetomidine in the Treatment of Agitation Associated With Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder (SERENITY III)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 16.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: disorderschizophreniabipolarplacebodiagnosis
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whomoderatejudgedhepatichealth
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: 75 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 6 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 93.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 15.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4212 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Assessment of Acute Psychomotor Agitation Measures Associated With Schizophrenia and Bipolar Disorder NCT07116694 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Sub-Lingual Dexmedetomidine in Agitation Associated With Schizophrenia NCT04010305 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Dexmedetomidine in the Treatment of Agitation Associated With Schizophrenia NCT04268303 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Dexmedetomidine in the Treatment of Agitation Associated With Bipolar Disorder NCT04276883 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• This Study Tests Whether BI 409306 Prevents Patients With a Specific Type of Mental Illness (Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome) From Becoming Worse. This Study Looks at How Well Patients Tolerate the Medicine and How Effective it is Over 1 Year NCT03230097 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.