Study of Gemcitabine, Abraxane® Plus Placebo Versus Gemcitabine, Abraxane® Plus 1 or 2 Truncated Courses of Demcizumab in Subjects With 1st-Line Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2017-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placebocancertumormetastaticdouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: linesignificantclinicallyand safetyallergic
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 21 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: triple (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Abemaciclib (LY2835219) Alone or in Combination With Other Agents in Participants With Previously Treated Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma NCT02981342 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Gemcitabine and Nab-paclitaxel Combined With Momelotinib in Participants With Previously Untreated Metastatic Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma NCT02101021 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Nab-Pac+Cis+Gem in Pts w Previously Untreated Metastatic PDA NCT01893801 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• CEND-1 in Combination With Nabpaclitaxel and Gemcitabine in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer NCT03517176 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma Signature Stratification for Treatment NCT04469556 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.