RICE: Remission by Intra-articular Injection Plus CErtolizumab
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (111 trials).
Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-01-15, after 2013-11-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-01-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 54.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectstime ofdoublefemalestudy
Phrases that lowered it: cancerpatientscounttreatmentcell -
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 0 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- no earlier finished trials (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 1 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 33087 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 5675 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 54.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- immunology, dermatology, musculoskeletal
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- certolizumab pegol, lidocaine, sulfadiazine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Open Label Extension for Patients Coming From the Dosing Flexibility Study in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA) NCT00753454 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
- A Study of CDP870 as Add-on Meditation to Methotrexate (MTX) in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT00993317 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- An Open-label Extension Study of Certolizumab Pegol in Chinese Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis Who Enrolled in RA0044 NCT02319642 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Efficacy Confirmation Study of CDP870 in Early Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01451203 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 10% of active trials completed
- Open-label, Extension Study of CDP870 in Patients With Rheumatoid Arthritis NCT01197066 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 23% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.