Intratumoral CAVATAK (CVA21) and Ipilimumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma (VLA-013 MITCI)
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 23% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-11-05, after 2015-05-05 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-05. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: tumorbrainpatients mustmelanomacolitis
Phrases that lowered it: patientsopen labelaccordinggoodarm -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 25% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 5731 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 25% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 5731 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2088 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.6% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 22.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- coxsackievirus a21, ipilimumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Intratumoral CAVATAK™ in Patients With Stage IIIc and Stage IV Malignant Melanoma (VLA-007 CALM ) NCT01227551 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
- Intratumoral CAVATAK (CVA21) and Pembrolizumab in Patients With Advanced Melanoma (VLA-011 CAPRA) NCT02565992 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials completed
- CAVATAK in Patients With Stage IIIc or IV Malignant Melanoma to Extend Dosing to 48 Weeks (VLA-008 CALM Ext) NCT01636882 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
- Safety of Intranodal ECI-006 in Melanoma Patients NCT03394937 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Varlilumab (Anti-CD27) and Ipilimumab and CDX-1401 in Patients With Unresectable Stage III or IV Melanoma NCT02413827 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.