A Study of Abemaciclib (LY2835219) in Participants With Breast Cancer, Non-small Cell Lung Cancer, or Melanoma That Has Spread to the Brain
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 16% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2019-11-08, after 2015-04-20 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-11-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: melanomabraincancermetastasescell
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantbreast cancerhormoneevaluate the -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.4% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 151 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 934 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 5.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 151 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 4 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, neurology, respiratory, dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- abemaciclib
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Abemaciclib for Patients With Retinoblastoma-Positive, Triple Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03130439 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
- Cabazitaxel Plus Lapatinib as Therapy for HER2-Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer Patients With Intracranial Metastases NCT01934894 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials terminated
- A Study of Abemaciclib (LY2835219) In Participants With Previously Treated Breast Cancer That Has Spread NCT02102490 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Study Evaluating Abemaciclib + Aromatase Inhibitors in HR+, HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer Patients (HERMIONE-7) NCT04227327 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
- HER3-DXd in Breast Cancer and NSCLC Brain Metastases and Solid Tumor Leptomeningeal Disease NCT05865990 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.